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Author Topic: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper  (Read 1439 times)

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Mez

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Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« on: April 24, 2010, 01:55:02 PM »

OK. Now I know you all think Mr Mez and I are delusional hippies, and probably we are.  But Mr Mez is also a very knowledgeable scientist who writes articles that are respected within scientific communities, and below is a transcript of his greenhouse discussion paper, as it appeared in print not long ago.

I am yet to be convinced that people are having a great deal of impact on global warming - we are, after all, still emerging from the last ice-age - but I don't think the destruction of rainforests, CO2 pollution and the creation of nuclear waste are helping things along much either.  Bottom line is, if we don't stop what we're doing, we're all dead anyway, from pollution if nothing else.

The solution, as seen by the mega-rich, is to buy an icebreaker and convert it into a luxury yacht.  Jamie Packer, hang your selfish fuckwit head in shame!

Anyway, without further ado, here is the article in its entirety for your consideration.  And remember, I am the dope-smoking hippie in the family.  Mr Mez does not do drugs and does not drink either. When we go out, I am the designated drinker. As far as I can tell, his genius brain is still intact, unlike mine.

I have to put this into several posts, as it exceeds the maximum length of 1000 characters.

"Greenhouse!

Well has the fight against climate change been called a war.  Most of us living now haven’t been through a major war - one which threatened our entire way of life, as did the two World Wars last century. 

We don’t know what it means to live with the fear that accompanies such times.

Many of us don’t even remember the Cold War, when the whole world stood poised on the brink of Armageddon, thousands of millions of human lives at peril, depending on generals whose ideas of war were based on their experiences during World War Two - in particular the delusion that there is such a thing as a winnable nuclear war - no less outdated than those of their murderous predecessors in the First World War who sat fat and complacent in their Chateaux, drinking port and smoking cigars, ordering charge after doomed infantry charge into hails of machine-gun bullets.

Somehow we got through the Cold War.  But this new threat - the collapse of our biosphere - is no less deadly, and our present politicians are no less unimaginative and cowardly than the generals of the past.

Human society today is incredibly fragile.  Our population is three times what it was fifty years ago.  The very first thing that will happen, long before we make the planet uninhabitable, will be the collapse of our basic global infrastructure.  We are now so dependent on automation and technology that even a partial breakdown would cause famines and food riots, and lead to bitter resource wars costing hundreds of millions of lives.

Crops are failing.  Over 170 million people live on land less than one metre above sea level.  Infrastructure is collapsing.  Without machines, the carrying capacity of the Earth is only a few hundred million.  The rest - the other 95% - will die.

It’s happening already.  Refugees and “internally displaced” people now number in the tens of millions.  Forty years ago we said to ourselves, “No society can survive with billions of people starving.  By the time we get to the year 2000 we will just have to adjust our economics and politics to do something about it.”

But now that we’re here, we realise we don’t have to do anything about it.  Even developed nations are filled with burgeoning third-world underclasses, from the squalor of urban slums to the shanty-towns surrounding cities such as Johannesburg and Mexico City.

So overpopulated is our planet that the scenario of a “Fortress First World” already exists, but the affluent middle-class continue living in a dream-world of media lies and deliberate self-censorship, surrounded by desperation, poverty and violence.

Can we imagine how our grandparents felt when newspaper headlines shouted Hitler's invasion of Poland?  Or when the Call Up letter arrived in 1942, asking them to go and fight in New Guinea against the evil of Japanese imperialism?

Probably not.  We’ve forgotten many things about war.

One of them, though, is that you don't ask how much hardship there will be, or the cost involved, before you decide to fight.

This is a new way of thinking for most of us.  In war, the given is that you fight.  Working out the cost comes afterward.

In fighting climate change, cutting greenhouse emissions is the given.  You don't begin by working out what the economy will stand, and then set your emission targets.

That way, we’re all dead.

The newspapers are full of idiotic things like: “Committee declines to set emissions targets due to possible economic impact.”

How about living in a world whose agriculture has collapsed?  Would that count as an economic impact?

We can talk about "manageable economic restructuring" later, as we go along.  There’s no place for it in the basic decision.

One day it will be the year 2500.  Whatever happens to us, the day will come and the sun will rise on January the first 2500.

What sort of world will it rise upon?  Seriously.

Carbon sequestration and other mitigating technologies might make some difference.  But consideration of these belongs after we’ve decided what has to be done.  It has no business as a driver of policy.

Economists are the kind of people who, as you fall off a cliff, tell you not to worry because someone will open up a parachute shop halfway down in response to the demand.  They've always been dangerous; now they’re a deadly liability.  This is not an economic question.  And even if it was, it doesn’t matter how much money you’ve got when you’re dead.  You still can’t spend it.




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Mez

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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2010, 01:56:08 PM »

What we have to do, simply, is cut global greenhouse emissions by something like 60% within 20 years.  It’s not optional.  It’s not “only if we can make it economically feasible.”  This decisions must be made first.  Alone.  By itself.

Don’t be fooled.  Fighting greenhouse gas emissions is easy.

You just quadruple the price of carbon fuels.

Then and only then do you start to work out how to handle its impact on our lives.

Ironically, in our lifetimes, we’ll probably never know if we’ve done enough to save the world.  But we may know - much sooner - if we haven’t.

There's no need to do it all at once.  A price rise of 25% per year for twenty years would do.

The money raised, plus any spare cash you have lying around, like, say, from selling public utilities back to the people who owned them in the first place, goes towards developing the alternatives which are already there.  Only a lack of economies of scale, inertial resistance to infrastructure change - and simple greed - prevent wind, tidal, solar and geothermal power from already being competitive with carbon.

The real problem with them is not that their energy is expensive.  The problem is that it’s so cheap.

You can’t charge for the wind or the sun like you can for coal and oil.  You don’t have to dig them up.  And you don’t have to pay other people to dig them up.  You don’t have to refine them.  Zero pollution alternatives to fossil fuels are virtually free as ongoing power sources.  The only real cost is building the generators.
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Mez

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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2010, 02:00:28 PM »

For example, thirty thousand dollars’ worth of solar panels on every house in Australia would just about take the entire domestic component of electricity generation out of the mix.

Yes, that’s about a hundred billion dollars’ worth.  But spread out over twenty years, it’s not only achievable - it becomes routine.  Five billion a year is a figure we talk about all the time.  Politicians promise six times this amount in extra spending during election campaigns. 

Five billion represents the global budget for war and destruction - read “defence” - in less than two days.  We could start installing the hardware tomorrow.  And any decent engineer could knock a large chunk off the cost in a week via simple economies of scale and design.

So why don’t we do it, or something like it?  Tell me why, again, we’re going to sacrifice our world?

Cutting greenhouse emissions is not the hard part.  The hard part is dealing with the social dislocation of the necessary act of pricing carbon fuels out of the market, and the short and medium term political impact of pursuing a long-term vision.

What it will take is courage.  Like Chamberlain in the thirties, our politicians are not so hot at taking on hard things.  Never has the distinction between a leader and a politician been so stark. 

Or so important.  Have we forgotten how to think big?  Have our decades of security made us so afraid of change?
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Mez

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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2010, 02:02:22 PM »

"Can we give up our cars?  Can we swelter in 45-degree summer heat without an air-conditioner?  Can we make the decision to spend part of our retirement money on domestic solar electricity, instead of spending it on coal-fired electricity itself in 20 years when it costs $2500 a quarter?

We'll have to do it - whether we think we can or not - either through common resolve and strong leadership, or via political, economic - and actual - meltdown.

Nuclear power is not an alternative.  Nuclear waste isn’t just a political issue; it’s a deadly poison that we have absolutely no way of dealing with.  We have already left our descendants - if there are any - a horrible legacy in deaths, genetic deformities, illnesses and indirect effects from reduced soil fertility and food-chain concentration, for which they will rightly despise us.

The relevant point is time-scales.  Radioactive waste needs safe storage for thousands of years.  It remains deadly for more than three times as long as the pyramids have stood in Egypt.  It is not something you stick in a 44-gallon drum and shove down the bottom of an old mineshaft.

And we already produce 12,000 tonnes of “high level” nuclear waste per year.

We make endless excuses for doing nothing, for buying ourselves another few years of the illusion of stability.  We hear things like, “We can’t act decisively on climate change, because Australia is such a small country and others are so big.  If we move first, they’ll undercut us economically, and we’re so small anyway that what we do will be just a drop in the bucket compared to the impact of countries like India and China.
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Mez

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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2010, 02:06:22 PM »

"Firstly, they’re undercutting us economically anyway, by paying their workforce peanuts.  Secondly, removing ourselves from a dependence on fossil fuels will have major benefits in so many ways over the medium term - say 20 to 50 years.

Even if there was no climate change, zero emission power sources are still better than coal.  They’re not only cheaper.  They’re actually free.  Imagine it!  No more electricity bills!  Charge your car’s battery off the sun and pay no more petrol bills at all.  Ever.  And the technologies we could pioneer in achieving this, through research into fuel-cells, batteries, photovoltaic materials and so on,  would provide export dollars undreamed of.

Any fuel that you have to keep finding more and more of, then digging it up and refining it just to maintain your society, is innately doomed.  The quicker you move away from a dependence on it, the better off you will be.

In fact, Australia’s small size is a perfect reason why we should do it.  What a noble thing, to be leaders and pioneers in saving the world. 

If developed countries like ours, with capital, natural resources and infrastructure, can't transfer their dependence on fossil fuels to non-polluting alternatives without collapsing, what hope is there for the rest?  We have an opportunity to set an example of how a country might move decisively but coherently towards a sustainable energy base - one with a long-term future.

It’s not just about finding new jobs for out-of-work coal miners. It’s about changing our very culture, grasping in our time as our grandparents did in theirs the responsibility and empowerment for changing the way we do things - dangerous, destructive things - that we only do out of inertia and mental laziness. 
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Mez

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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #5 on: April 24, 2010, 02:07:52 PM »

"Why, for example, do we still burn coal and petrol travelling in trains and cars to work to sit in offices, when the technology exists for almost all white collar jobs to be performed from home via high-speed data-links?  Why do we illuminate business premises and public buildings with kilowatts of pointless lighting all night? How many megatonnes of carbon dioxide will we continue to pump into the air before we start thinking about these things differently?

The answer doesn’t lie in micro-regulation.  It lies in taxing carbon-based energy sources progressively and rapidly out of the market, subsidising non-polluting alternatives, and funding research to the tune of billions of dollars.

And, above all, it involves having the courage to face short-term political backlash of inducing fundamental infrastructure change.  Australia has a wonderful window of opportunity here to do the hard things, the unpopular things, whilst riding the electoral wave of its initial victory.

How can we lean on Third World countries to stop clear-felling forests and invest in solar, hydro and wind power when we, with all our wealth, balk at closing down coal mines, and make a pig's breakfast out of a simple task like saving our own lives?

This isn’t like doing a tax return, where you stretch definitions to find deductions to offset your income.  These goalposts won't move, no matter how hard we try to juggle the balance sheet.

This century will be a watershed in history, and will see the end of many things we never before thought to question.  Can we make it the beginning of something, too?

It will see the end of the industrial revolution as we have understood it:  Machines have become so efficient that we actually don’t need to work any more in the conventional sense.
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Mez

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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2010, 02:10:09 PM »

"First World iron-ore mines produce tens of thousands of tonnes of ore per year per employee.  Grain farms are the same.  Robots have taken over manufacturing industry so completely that it is getting hard to find anything for humans to do at all. 

How can there possibly be shortages - other than artificial ones, caused by our own lack of courage and mental flexibility - in a society that commands such power?

For the first time in history we face a crisis based not on manufacturing capacity, but on the management of energy sources.

This century will also see the end of exponential population growth. 

There are seven billion of us now.  The ideological wars of last century are long gone.  The fact is, we’re too desperate for that sort of luxury.  Today’s wars are resource wars.

The real problem is overpopulation. 

If we don’t control population voluntarily, limiting all people - over the whole planet - to two offspring, it will be done for us.  Or, rather, it will be done to us, in a cruel and desperate struggle over food and resources, which dwindle rather than grow as we damage the climate with emissions, desertify increasingly large tracts of Africa and South America with desperate, hand-to-mouth, destructively inefficient agriculture, and our headlong population spiral continues unabated.

The business leaders who talk about Australia needing a population of 60 million are insane.

Across the world, about eight million people now die every year from the effects of malnutrition.  As resource wars grow more widespread and bitter, the present 300 million refugees and "internally displaced" people will become billions, living in camps ruled by gangs and war-lords, squeezed between the competing pressures of population and the failure of agriculture due to climate change and war.

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Mez

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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2010, 02:11:53 PM »

"Sound familiar?  Right.  All this is already happening, and probably there is nothing we can now do to prevent it - even if we take immediate and decisive steps.  At best, we are headed for a couple of bad centuries, amidst which, however, technology and ordered cultural and political infrastructure may be at least preserved in a patchwork of “fortress first world” enclaves.

The next level of collapse isn’t so rosy.  There are no enclaves.  Population, temperature and sea level have all risen, till the kind of opportunistic chaos reigns that we see now only in parts of Africa and Asia.  Global trade and communications break down, and we have John Wyndham’s famous future scenario - the first generation, yokels, the second, savages.

Within three generations we’re back to horses and oxen.  The population falls to one-tenth of its previous figure.  Within six generations the highest political entities are feudal agrarian states where, perhaps, some people can still actually read and write.

Further ecological collapse than this, means only extinction - a world parched and dessicated, with temperatures in the fifties and sixties Celsius.  No stable ecology is to be found anywhere, as the Earth’s atmosphere convulses continuously for centuries.

For centuries now, the subheading of every important news story has been its economic impact on us.  But this time, we're not resource poor in the conventional sense.

If we survive this crisis, and after a couple of messy centuries find ourselves still alive, with a stable population, non-polluting energy sources and a fully roboticised manufacturing base, we will have crossed a very important bridge in history, and achieved a deep change in our social psychology.

In such a future, the cost of things would be minimal.  Energy would be virtually free, as would most manufactured goods - as they could be now if we wanted.  For the first time, economics would no longer be the primary driver of our most important decisions.  Our focus will shift, and we will set out on a new road.  Almost without knowing it, we will have brought about a world where people are able to do things for more worthy reasons than the accumulation of wealth.

Technology and automation can already provide the answers we need to beat climate change.  Our lives, those of our descendants, and of life on Earth as we know it - all these things are on the line, and we have the power in our hands to save them.  The real question is, do we have the will?  Or are we too stupid to realise what our responsibilities are as Top Species, or perhaps simply too cowardly to carry them out?

We don’t need politicians any more.  We need leaders.  Can Australia - and its leaders - find the moral courage and vision to spearhead the saving of the world?"


Copyright: Mr Mez 2009

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SG

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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #8 on: April 24, 2010, 02:21:47 PM »

blah blah blah.

Mr Mez SHOULD do drugs and alcohol.

That was a load of crap.

SG
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Mez

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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2010, 02:24:43 PM »

Right.  I'll expect your 2500 word reply refuting his arguments when?

Did you actually read it?  A lot of what he says makes sense and you know it, you capitalist pig.
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T. Wolfe Tone

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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2010, 02:37:02 PM »

and the creation of nuclear waste


What does that have to do with Greenhouse gas emmisions?
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Mez

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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2010, 02:40:39 PM »

Absolutely nothing.  As far as I know.  But overpopulation and pollution will kill us all anyway, regardless of greenhouse emissions.
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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2010, 02:42:16 PM »

Yeah but you were listing things which you thought were affecting climate change.
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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2010, 03:06:03 PM »

We're still coming out of our last ice-age...?

Where did he get is quotes from Mez? Well, namely, this one:

“No society can survive with billions of people starving.  By the time we get to the year 2000 we will just have to adjust our economics and politics to do something about it.”

And I do agree with SG on this one. At best it reads like a (long) plot line to the latest sci-fi hit. Using the 'what if?' theme, he's run with climate change actually being real (which I believe would be SG's first point of laughing) and he's detailed a whole heap of senstationalised ideas. It's very dramatic and gripping...I'm sure it would do well as a novel.

As for scientific and realistic...well, what has he based a lot of these claims on? The ability to see the future? It reminds me of 15 minutes of a docutmentry on the 7 my mum forced me to watch where they basically outlined the same nihilistic view of the future unless we change everything NOW!! And it's just (as I said) sensationalisation.

Overpopulation isn't an issue in australia. It's not going to kill us. And implementing a rule that every person is allowed two children is still doubling the population every generation (that is, generation 2 will have double the population of generation 1) which, one would think, isn't really helping in the reduction of population.
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SG

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Re: Mr Mez's greenhouse discussion paper
« Reply #14 on: April 24, 2010, 04:39:51 PM »

Right.  I'll expect your 2500 word reply refuting his arguments when?

Did you actually read it?  A lot of what he says makes sense and you know it, you capitalist pig.

I read most of it until it became clear it was just an unsupported rambling rant.

Which makes it great for here but not much else.

SG
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