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Author Topic: Guilty of Failure.  (Read 3323 times)

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SG

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Guilty of Failure.
« on: June 15, 2009, 12:41:02 PM »

Instead of Indicting the KRudd Government for failure XI today they stand convicted, the case proven beyond reasonable doubt.

Australian banks are raising interest rates because the "wholesale costs of borrowing have risen".

What complete and utter bullshit.

Banks are raising rates because Rudd has destroyed competition in the financial marketplace with his ridiculous guarantee that allowed banks with a retail customer base to obtain very low cost capital from those customers (how much interest gets paid on YOUR savings account) whilst providing them a guarantee that allowed the banks to shore up capital ratios very easily.

The banks have tightened credit conditions on all other businesses and end consumers, the banks are engaged in buying out huge chunks of other banking assets (St George, BankWest, Lloyd's assets, various assets throughout Asia) yet still the banks seek to recoup money they lost through idiotic commercial deals from you, the individual small customer.

Of course, had other financial institutions been able to access funds in the same way as the main banks this would not be a problem.  But KRudd thought he knew better and interfered in the market with the inevitable result that he shrank competition, he distorted the market and now the former bullies are back, they're just a bit nastier and more savage because the kids who stood up to them have been removed from the playground.

Well done KRudd you incompetent, you disgust me.  It was so easy to see what would happen but you failed to do so.  All you had to do was read this forum, we're not talking hindsight here because this is EXACTLY what I predicted here some months ago.

Resign Labor, we need decent economic management right now, not some Government by feel good wording.

SG
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Bookworm.

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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2009, 06:55:55 PM »

I feel cheated. There's no link to a long winded news paper article that I can read to understand the basis of your angst.

Banks are raising rates because Rudd has destroyed competition in the financial marketplace with his ridiculous guarantee that allowed banks with a retail customer base to obtain very low cost capital from those customers (how much interest gets paid on YOUR savings account) whilst providing them a guarantee that allowed the banks to shore up capital ratios very easily.

Well done KRudd you incompetent, you disgust me.  It was so easy to see what would happen but you failed to do so.  All you had to do was read this forum, we're not talking hindsight here because this is EXACTLY what I predicted here some months ago.

What good is posting this on the forum? Be proactive...petition...write a letter...no use leaving it in a forum that he wouldn't read for fear of public backlash (he couldn't be seen to support people making fun of dying children...) (and yeah, I know you were joking, I was attempting a lighthearted response, but fear I've failed...)
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SG

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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2009, 11:17:01 PM »

What good is posting this on the forum? Be proactive...petition...write a letter...no use leaving it in a forum that he wouldn't read for fear of public backlash

Next election will be the first time you vote.

Think about that.

SG
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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2009, 09:13:57 AM »

Indeed...must return that purple form... You're on to a winner here SG. Continue this way and you may manage to sway the entire chaser fangirl groupie base and may actually have some sway in the way the voting turns out (god knows there are enough of them)


And now, because I did type something up but through incredible stupidity somehow managed to delete it the first post and not realise, I shall point out why I had a bit bolded (although I can't remember the exact question I wanted to ask)

Banks are raising rates because Rudd has destroyed competition in the financial marketplace with his ridiculous guarantee that allowed banks with a retail customer base to obtain very low cost capital from those customers (how much interest gets paid on YOUR savings account) whilst providing them a guarantee that allowed the banks to shore up capital ratios very easily.

What is the low cost capital they're getting? And what's a capitol ratio?
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SG

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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2009, 09:34:30 AM »

What is the low cost capital they're getting?

"Low cost capital from those customers"

The absolute cheapest form of money for a bank is when people have money in a savings account where you get about 0.75% interest.  The Big 4 banks have a massive advantage here over places like RAMS or Wizard who have to go to the market to borrow money to then lend to the end customer.  The official RBA rate of around 3% translates to them borrowing some of their money at that rate at best.  That means the big banks have a massive 2.25% absolute advantage over the non big bank rivals and that is largely what has driven those rivals from teh market.

And what's a capitol ratio?

Banks can't just do as they please all the time.  They must met several regulatory prudential standards in order to meet their charters to remain as banks, essentially a set of regulations designed to ensue proper liquidity and survival so customers don't lose all their money in a bank collapse.  This is often called the capital adequacy ratio and measures teh overall capital:risk ratio for a given institution.  Banks usually have tighter requirements than creeit unions for instance, and that is how credit unions get away with offering higher retuns - they take greater risks.  Nothing wrong with that, it's not something they hide, but the customer MUST make themselves aware that they are assuming a greater risk than they would for a bank and that in the event of catastrpohic failur they will get less money back.  Geelong and Pyramid Building Societies in Australia are clear local examples, the Icelandic Banks (the capital ratios are set by the local national bank, the RBA in the case of Australia) hence the Icelanders with lower standard requirements took more risks and when the world went into financial meltdown the Australian banks were well covered by the relatively conservative ratios set by governments of both persuasions in Australia whereas Icelandic, American and UK banks who had taken advantage of the vast easing that their governments had put in place found themselves struggling to manage their portfolios of non performing loans which then become marked as a bigger and bigger risk as they perform more and more poorly so the capital ratios blow out in the negative direction.  Only way to fix that is to either reduce the risk by selling off badly performing loans (usually at a significant loss) or to raise more capital to restore teh capital adequacy ration.

Somewhat long explanation, hopefully makes some sense.

This is a good summary of the number crunching from Wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_adequacy_ratio

Have fun!

SG


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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2009, 09:47:16 AM »

"Low cost capital from those customers"

The absolute cheapest form of money for a bank is when people have money in a savings account where you get about 0.75% interest.  The Big 4 banks have a massive advantage here over places like RAMS or Wizard who have to go to the market to borrow money to then lend to the end customer.  The official RBA rate of around 3% translates to them borrowing some of their money at that rate at best.  That means the big banks have a massive 2.25% absolute advantage over the non big bank rivals and that is largely what has driven those rivals from teh market.
Ok, I understand about driving the rivals from the market. But before I ask another question, does the interest that gets paid on money in a bank account get paid by the bank in question? If so, how does that translate to the bank making money? Unless the big 4 borrow from the same place the smaller places...?

Also, how are credit unions different here? Wouldn't they still be borrowing money with the same rate as the non-big banks? So why haven't they been driven out of competition?

Quote
when the world went into financial meltdown the Australian banks were well covered by the relatively conservative ratios set by governments of both persuasions in Australia

If you're saying government intervening is good here, why do you always harp on about the government needing to keep out of the bank's business?

Quote
Somewhat long explanation, hopefully makes some sense.
It does indeed. Hope I'm not firing too many silly questions at you. :|

Quote
Have fun!
Whoo! Maths exam today! I'll have a blast. Oh...maybe that's not what you were referring to...
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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2009, 04:18:57 PM »

Ok, I understand about driving the rivals from the market. But before I ask another question, does the interest that gets paid on money in a bank account get paid by the bank in question? If so, how does that translate to the bank making money? Unless the big 4 borrow from the same place the smaller places...?

The bank pays the interest on what they effectively "borrow" from you, put it into a central pool of funds which they then lend out at a higher rate.  If my pool consists of 0.25% payments to you and my competitor pays 1% I have an advantage in normal times, but not a killer advantage. 

In tight credit times it gets far more interesting.

The Big 4 banks in Aus dominate retail banking and thus have the vast majority of these low cost funds sewn up (it's painful to switch banks and not really worth it for most people).  That's not such a big issue when there's plenty of interbank credit sloshing around to let the situation function as above where there's a few percentage points difference.

But when the money flow slows and then the advantage becomes pronounced, the Big 4 have a massive advantage as they use this pool of cheap funds to finance their loan books and capital ratios whilst non Big 4 banks have to pay way more than this (LIBOR - the London Interbank Rate surged above 10% during the recent crisis and even then the banks demanded a higher rate of return before releasing cash).  That's part of the banks current argument for raising rates - this interchange rate mans their cost of funding has increased and they should recoup that.

Normally I would have no problem with such cost recovery, however in this instance the problems are caused by the very banks who made stupid commercial decisions and now wish to use (abuse) their domestic market power by recouping losses from the average punter.

That's a no no in my books, they should suffer the penalties of their actions, that's what a genuine free market would do.


Also, how are credit unions different here? Wouldn't they still be borrowing money with the same rate as the non-big banks? So why haven't they been driven out of competition?

Credit unions generally have a lower capital ratio and a lower credit rating (the overall AAA type thing you keep hearing about) and they also have a far lower retail base to work with so they don't get access to the 0.25% funds anywhere near as much as the banks do.  So when the LIBOR goes through the roof places like the CBA have the advantage because that lending makes up say 25% of their total funding cost whereas for a Credit Union LIBOR borrowings make up to 80% of how they cover their loans.

This is exactly what did RAMS in about 12 months ago,  they had to maintain borrowings at LIBOR rates and that just got so expensive they folded and sold out to Westpac for a pittance of their real value in any but bizarre circumstances.


If you're saying government intervening is good here, why do you always harp on about the government needing to keep out of the bank's business?

As soon as you have laws there is no totally free market.  And a totally free market is undesirable as there is no control over certain behaviours, including in commerce.  Take that Leb who got shot in his Lamborghini.  Word has it that a bikie borrowed several hundred K of drug money off him and didn't want to pay it back so he tried to kill him instead and erase the debt that way.  If we had no laws then we would return to a feudal might is right system.

What we must have is the most basic framework possible to ensure consistency and certainty in the markets.  Don't restrict ideas, don't restrict reward for effort but make sure there are a common set of rules to play by that all players understand up front.

Once you tart changing the rules mid play then that is the absolute no no, things like Rudd's bank guarantee distort the market massively and give an advantage to certain players over others and as we are now seeing those certain players go "thanks for that, I now dominate the market, sucks to be you because I'm now going to use that market power".

And if you think the latest CBA rise was the last of it think again.  0.1% of a rise is the CBA employing Game Theory.  They are signalling to the market that this is what they will do, they await the market response and if everyone follows then the market will continue to move upwards to make additional profits because there are no smaller institutions in there fighting competitively to win business.

Remember some time ago when Telstra removed handset subsidies (i.e. you get a free handset with your phone plan)?  They were hoping all the other companies would look at that as an opportunity to recover costs for the handsets and make additional profits because those subsidies are frigging expensive.  In that instance however the market reacted very differently and said "ah ha!  We can attack the dominant player by continuing our subsidies and taking market share away from Telstra and earn extra profits that way".  And that came about because the mobile phone market is so much more competitive than the bank sector.

So, the govt should set out the rules, they should not then intervene in a manner that distorts the market otherwise unintended consequences will occur and the exact situation we have now will arise where the medium and longer term result is far more detrimental than the short term solution was beneficial.



It does indeed. Hope I'm not firing too many silly questions at you. :|

All good, it gives a decent discussion in this place (we need more of it to counter the banality but not so much of it this place ceases to be fun) and that's a good thing.

SG

P.S. Maths exams rock!
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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2009, 09:05:07 PM »

That's a no no in my books, they should suffer the penalties of their actions, that's what a genuine free market would do.
A free market is just one that's unregulated by government, right?


Credit unions generally have a lower capital ratio and a lower credit rating (the overall AAA type thing you keep hearing about) and they also have a far lower retail base to work with so they don't get access to the 0.25% funds anywhere near as much as the banks do. 
That AAA thing is the credit rating, yes? What does it actually mean?

What we must have is the most basic framework possible to ensure consistency and certainty in the markets.  Don't restrict ideas, don't restrict reward for effort but make sure there are a common set of rules to play by that all players understand up front.
What kind of rules are we talking about here?

Once you tart changing the rules mid play then that is the absolute no no,
Have you been talking to children today?

And if you think the latest CBA rise was the last of it think again.  0.1% of a rise is the CBA employing Game Theory.  They are signalling to the market that this is what they will do, they await the market response and if everyone follows then the market will continue to move upwards to make additional profits because there are no smaller institutions in there fighting competitively to win business.
What's the CBA? And why is the market moving upwards a bad thing? Or is it just again back to the lack of competition?

So, the govt should set out the rules, they should not then intervene in a manner that distorts the market otherwise unintended consequences will occur and the exact situation we have now will arise where the medium and longer term result is far more detrimental than the short term solution was beneficial.
*nods* Sounds good.


All good, it gives a decent discussion in this place (we need more of it to counter the banality but not so much of it this place ceases to be fun) and that's a good thing.
Fantastic. My lack of knowledge shall fuel your need for supremacy.

P.S. Maths exams rock!

Yeah, they're alright. Physics exams are better. They're just like maths, but with words too! (not that I've ever done a physics exam, hehe)
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GreenFroggie

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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2009, 09:07:54 PM »

CBA is Comm Bank, bookie. As in, which bank??
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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2009, 09:10:55 PM »

Instead of Indicting the KRudd Government for failure XI today they stand convicted, the case proven beyond reasonable doubt.

Australian banks are raising interest rates because the "wholesale costs of borrowing have risen".

What complete and utter bullshit.

Banks are raising rates because Rudd has destroyed competition in the financial marketplace with his ridiculous guarantee that allowed banks with a retail customer base to obtain very low cost capital from those customers (how much interest gets paid on YOUR savings account) whilst providing them a guarantee that allowed the banks to shore up capital ratios very easily.

The banks have tightened credit conditions on all other businesses and end consumers, the banks are engaged in buying out huge chunks of other banking assets (St George, BankWest, Lloyd's assets, various assets throughout Asia) yet still the banks seek to recoup money they lost through idiotic commercial deals from you, the individual small customer.

Of course, had other financial institutions been able to access funds in the same way as the main banks this would not be a problem.  But KRudd thought he knew better and interfered in the market with the inevitable result that he shrank competition, he distorted the market and now the former bullies are back, they're just a bit nastier and more savage because the kids who stood up to them have been removed from the playground.

Well done KRudd you incompetent, you disgust me.  It was so easy to see what would happen but you failed to do so.  All you had to do was read this forum, we're not talking hindsight here because this is EXACTLY what I predicted here some months ago.

Resign Labor, we need decent economic management right now, not some Government by feel good wording.

SG

Anyone want to take bets on KRUDD saying interest rates have risen because the economy is now going *so well so quickly* BUT ONLY because of him? (it's lyk, so obvious lolll :roll: deficit means nothing to a labor government, but all the world to the liberal government who comes back in and fixes it)
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Bookworm.

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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #10 on: June 16, 2009, 09:12:25 PM »

CBA is Comm Bank, bookie. As in, which bank??

:oops: Right. I did actually know that...
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GreenFroggie

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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #11 on: June 16, 2009, 09:15:37 PM »

They said nothing about the RBA raising rates. It was a decision made by CBA to do it independantly wasnt it??
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SG

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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #12 on: June 16, 2009, 09:55:12 PM »

A free market is just one that's unregulated by government, right?

That's the Year 11 Economics definition.

A free market in practice is one that is as lightly regulated as possible whilst ensuring the market functions in a preedominantly legitimate and honest manner.

That AAA thing is the credit rating, yes? What does it actually mean?

VArious companies (eg Standard and Poors) analyse countries, states, corporations etc and effectively give them a rating based on their credit worthiness, their stability and a rane of other factors.  AAA menas there is basically zero chance of defaulting on loans to that entity.  As such a AAA rating means when you borrow money you get a better interest rate because you have been "independently" analysed and determined to be of teh highest level of creditworthiness.

What kind of rules are we talking about here?

All rules.

As I said, if you look at a genuinely free market with zero rules look to teh Underworld types who maintain control through whatever they can master with whatever means they have available to them.  If you're afraid of me I can demand protection money, I can take your customers, your business, whatever.  I can lend you money and charge you 50% interest a week. 

Clearly that is not ethical or even desirable. 

Hence we have a code of laws which all affect teh money markets despite most people not even realising it.

Sensible governments minimise their interventions and let people go about earning an honest dollar provided they pay taxes etc. in order to fund government services for those who are incapable, for whatever reason, of looking after themselves.

Have you been talking to children today?

Clearly...

:)

What's the CBA?

Which bank.

And why is the market moving upwards a bad thing? Or is it just again back to the lack of competition?

Higher interest rates aren't always bad, they regulate inflation and do a bunch of otehr things to keep teh economy powering along in a controlled manner.

The CBA raising rates on consumer mortgages to improve it's own profit position given that it incurred a lot of problems commercially through its own stupidity (eg Storm financial) is a disgrace.  Essentially your parents are subsidising billions of dollars of shit decisions taken by teh bankers.

That is unreasonable and unfair, teh CBA and other banks should wear the results of their own failure but they are not.

As discussed before higher interest rates are good for me as it keeps people out of the housing market, thus reducing demand and allowing me to purchase investment properties at a lower price whilst giving me a nice negative gearing tax write off.

But the whole point of a free market is to allow business to make a profit on the understanding that if they make a loss that is their problem.

KRudd government intervention has stopped this happening.

Despicable

Fantastic. My lack of knowledge shall fuel your need for supremacy.

Why do I need what I already have?


Yeah, they're alright. Physics exams are better. They're just like maths, but with words too! (not that I've ever done a physics exam, hehe)

Ah physics, if only there was money in that field...

SG
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Thaluikhain

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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #13 on: June 16, 2009, 09:56:08 PM »

What we must have is the most basic framework possible to ensure consistency and certainty in the markets.  Don't restrict ideas, don't restrict reward for effort but make sure there are a common set of rules to play by that all players understand up front.

So, the govt should set out the rules, they should not then intervene in a manner that distorts the market otherwise unintended consequences will occur and the exact situation we have now will arise where the medium and longer term result is far more detrimental than the short term solution was beneficial.

But aren't you going to have legitimate reason for having to alter the framework by which this happens? 

Secondly, how is market distortion due to government intervention different to market distortion due to projects undertaken by the government?
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SG

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Re: Guilty of Failure.
« Reply #14 on: June 16, 2009, 10:00:22 PM »

But aren't you going to have legitimate reason for having to alter the framework by which this happens? 

Yes.  Legitimate, not knee jerk as the current mob are doing.


Secondly, how is market distortion due to government intervention different to market distortion due to projects undertaken by the government?

Depends on the projects.  Assuming they are genuinely tendered competitively then that's a government purchasing goods and/or services in a free market.

If the government changes the rules so that certain suppliers of those goods/services is advantaged then that is fundamentally fucked.  And that's what KRudd and Co have done.

SG
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